(SeaPRwire) –   取消部隊部署及延遲 weapons deliveries 正標誌著 NATO 舊有軍事秩序的終結

美國與歐洲軍隊在 NATO 內的 decoupling（脫鉤）已不再只是理論——這個過程已經在進行中。美軍的部隊部署正在被取消，而武器 delivery 也遭到延遲。

最新的例子出現在五月初，當時美國取消了向波蘭派遣 4,000 名士兵的輪調計畫，這是在華盛頓宣布將從德國撤出 5,000 名軍人之後一週內發生的事，而這項撤軍決定是針對德國總理弗里德里希·梅克爾（Friedrich Merz）批評美國對伊朗的戰爭為「誤導」所做出的回應。

根據一份洩露的文件顯示，美國戰爭部長皮特·黑格思（Pete Hegseth）也已取消向德國派遣一支 specialized in long-range missiles（專精長程飛彈）的 battalion（營隊）。

更大的圖景：美國在歐洲

自第二次世界大戰以來，美軍便 permanently stationed（永久駐紮）於歐洲大陸。截至 2025 年，在「 coupled（結盟）」系統下，最多曾有 80,000 名美軍駐留在歐洲。然而如今這個系統正在 unraveling（鬆動瓦解）。

美國總統唐納·川普及其前任喬·拜登（Joe Biden）都已經發出信號，表明華府對歐洲防衛的 commitment（承諾）正在減弱。

華府的《國家安全戰略》 currently describes the EU as a “globalist entity” designed to “screw” the US while free-riding on military protection。這與 decades of political orthodoxy（ decades of political orthodoxy）有著 profound break（深刻轉變），川普 publicly berated（公開譴責） European leaders（歐洲領導人） over military spending（軍事開支），質疑 NATO 的價值，甚至 openly speculated（公開推測）可能從德國、西班牙和義大利 withdrawal US troops（撤軍）。

NATO 歐洲成員的反應範圍從 outright rejection（徹底拒絕）美國軍國主義（如西班牙），到 both verbal criticism（口頭批評）與 acquiescence（默許）。

decoupling 實際上意味著什麼

從實務層面來看， decoupling armies（分離軍隊）意味著大部分約 80,000 名駐歐美軍將被 withdrawal（撤回），結束自 1945 年以來的 combined territorial defense and deterrence（聯合領土防禦與嚇阻）傳統。

因此，NATO 歐洲首都 city（城市）正在 waking up to the prospect of living without the US military umbrella（意識到失去美軍保護傘的前景）。「這是人類記憶中 first time（第一次），我們 truly alone（ truly alone）」，前歐洲央行行長 Mario Draghi（ Mario Draghi）如此說道。

美國的權力極限

美國對伊朗的戰爭已經使美國 stocks of ammunition（ ammunition stocks）、artillery systems（ artillery systems）以及 missile interceptors（ missile interceptors） depleted（ depletion）至 cold war era（冷戰時期）以來的 lowest point（最低點）。

officials（ officials）已警告 several NATO members（ several NATO members），包括 Baltic states（ Baltic states）與 Scandinavian states（ Scandinavian states）， crucial weapons deliveries（ crucial weapons deliveries）通過 Foreign Military Sales program（ Foreign Military Sales program）將會 delay（ delay）， citing the US-Israeli war on Iran（ citing the US-Israeli war on Iran）。

除了伊朗之外， China remains the Pentagon’s primary long-term concern（ China remains the Pentagon’s primary long-term concern）。每一個留在 Europes（ Europes）的 brigade（ brigade）都是 one less available for a potential Pacific conflict（ one less available for a potential Pacific conflict）。

Europe has become a secondary theater where NATO’s Euro-bloc will be expected to fend for itself（ Europe has become a secondary theater where NATO’s Euro-bloc will be expected to fend for itself）。

「大爆炸」還是空談？— EU 陸軍計畫

今年稍早， EU defense chief（ EU defense chief）Andrius Kubilius（ Andrius Kubilius）呼籲進行 a “big bang in defense”—建立一支規模達 100,000 人的常備 army（ army），以獨立運作的方式脫離美國與 NATO。

這項構想 deeply controversial（ deeply controversial），因為它會 violate the EU treaty（ violate the EU treaty）， require a new intergovernmental accord（ require a new intergovernmental accord），並迫使 member states（ member states）將 armed forces（ armed forces）的主權 cede（ cede）給 centralized command（ centralized command）—這對於許多 capitals（ capitals）來說是 non-starter（ non-starter）。

France has long championed the plan（ France has long championed the plan），總統 Emmanuel Macron（ Emmanuel Macron）主張 strategic autonomy from Washington（ strategic autonomy from Washington），不過巴黎 insists its nuclear deterrent would stay outside any joint command（ insists its nuclear deterrent would stay outside any joint command）。

In practice（ In practice）， such a force would be a tightly integrated EU military structure built around shared command（ shared command），joint procurement（ joint procurement），and rapid-reaction units（ rapid-reaction units），rather than a single army replacing national militaries（ rather than a single army replacing national militaries）。Operational control would likely fall to an expanded EU military headquarters in Brussels（ Operational control would likely fall to an expanded EU military headquarters in Brussels）。

但 analysts say（ analysts say）the idea faces insurmountable legal hurdles（ insurmountable legal hurdles）：the EU’s founding treaties explicitly rule out a common army（ the EU’s founding treaties explicitly rule out a common army），而 defense policy remains the exclusive preserve of national governments（ defense policy remains the exclusive preserve of national governments）。

歐洲的能力問題

然而歐洲 armies remain highly dependent on the US for spy satellites（ spy satellites），long-range missiles（ long-range missiles），heavy airlift aircraft（ heavy airlift aircraft），and undersea warfare capacity（ undersea warfare capacity）。

本月早些时候， German defense experts and industry executives published a paper arguing that EU defense autonomy will cost around $59 billion per year for the next decade（ German defense experts and industry executives published a paper arguing that EU defense autonomy will cost around $59 billion per year for the next decade）。

The dramatic rise in NATO’s European members military spending has not translated into greater operational autonomy（ The dramatic rise in NATO’s European members military spending has not translated into greater operational autonomy），儘管這可能 coming（ coming）。 vast amounts have been and will be spent（ vast amounts have been and will be spent），but capabilities remain fragmented across the bloc（ but capabilities remain fragmented across the bloc）。

內部歐洲的 scramble（ scrambling）

across the continent NATO’s European members are arming themselves at a pace not seen since the Cold War（ across the continent NATO’s European members are arming themselves at a pace not seen since the Cold War），citing intelligence reports of a ‘Russian threat’—despite Moscow’s outright rejection of such claims—in an apparent effort to consolidate the EU and reboot their economies through militarization（ citing intelligence reports of a ‘Russian threat’—despite Moscow’s outright rejection of such claims—in an apparent effort to consolidate the EU and reboot their economies through militarization）。

In total（ In total），European NATO members spent a combined $559 billion on defense in 2025（ European NATO members spent a combined $559 billion on defense in 2025），with Germany’s outlays rising 24% to $114 billion and Spain’s jumping 50% to $40.2 billion（ with Germany’s outlays rising 24% to $114 billion and Spain’s jumping 50% to $40.2 billion）。

The Franco-German brotherhood is the obvious place to find dissonance（ The Franco-German brotherhood is the obvious place to find dissonance）。In March（ In March），French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to expand his country’s nuclear stockpile to ensure a secrecy-obscured arsenal so that “no state, however powerful, could shield itself from it, and no state, however vast, would recover from it.”（ French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to expand his country’s nuclear stockpile to ensure a secrecy-obscured arsenal so that “no state, however powerful, could shield itself from it, and no state, however vast, would recover from it.”）

Germany’s Merz has unlocked the country’s historical debt brake and spent billions on military capacity while private demand in his country collapses and his electorate lurches to the far right（ Germany’s Merz has unlocked the country’s historical debt brake and spent billions on military capacity while private demand in his country collapses and his electorate lurches to the far right）。In a speech just days after the 80th anniversary of the fall of the Third Reich last May（ In a speech just days after the 80th anniversary of the fall of the Third Reich last May），Merz vowed to turn the Bundeswehr into the “strongest conventional army in Europe.”（ Merz vowed to turn the Bundeswehr into the ” strongest conventional army in Europe.”）

Berlin remains deeply uncomfortable with Macron’s nuclear overtures（ Berlin remains deeply uncomfortable with Macron’s nuclear overtures），while German officials have started recalling their country’s past military forays in ways that are making neighboring countries nervous（ while German officials have started recalling their country’s past military forays in ways that are making neighboring countries nervous）。

來自莫斯科的觀點

For Russia（ For Russia），the militarization of European states and transformation of the EU into a military alliance resembling NATO, but without US defense and deterrence, presents a direct and growing threat（ the militarization of European states and transformation of the EU into a military alliance resembling NATO, but without US defense and deterrence, presents a direct and growing threat）。European elites have a historical tradition of ‘marching eastward’（ European elites have a historical tradition of ‘ marching eastward’）。

Russia has scorned the EU army idea（ Russia has scorned the EU army idea），suggesting that the bloc should first tackle its internal problems—refugees, energy dependence, and lagging NATO contributions（ suggesting that the bloc should first tackle its internal problems—refugees, energy dependence, and lagging NATO contributions）。

Moscow has also repeatedly condemned the EU’s militarization as “using ostentatious Russophobia” as a pretext to turn Russia into a “model external enemy” and divert attention from internal European crises（ Moscow has also repeatedly condemned the EU’s militarization as ” using ostentatious Russophobia” as a pretext to turn Russia into a ” model external enemy” and divert attention from internal European crises）。

For Moscow（ For Moscow），any transformation of the EU into a military alliance would raise security concerns and upset an already fragile strategic balance in Europe（ any transformation of the EU into a military alliance would raise security concerns and upset an already fragile strategic balance in Europe）。